Hate To Say I Told You So

Baseball Prospectus' Christina Kahrl says that the deal the Phillies gave Ibanez was the worst three-year deal of the entire off-season (ESPN Insider).

"By striking early into his tenure and inking Ibañez a couple of weeks into December, newly minted Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro completely failed to anticipate the shape of this winter's market, as younger and arguably better players like Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and -- that's right, Phillies fans -- Pat Burrell all got less money over shorter contracts, costing their employers just a combined $41 million for five player seasons. Amaro also radically overspent to bring a DH-to-be in his age-37 through age-39 seasons to the National League: PECOTA's long-term forecasting valued Ibañez's next three seasons at $13.5 million in marginal value over a replacement-level player (MORP), and that's without any special accounting for this winter's frozen market place."

The Silver Lining
While you all know I wasn't too keen on the signing before, and certainly I wasn't happy with the terms of the deal once Dunn, Abreu and Burrell all signed for significantly less, but I am at least happy the team showed some initiative to go out and get a player that they thought could best help address a need in FA. It shows a general attitude that the Phils are in the hunt to repeat. This will not be a year-long victory parade, at least not in the front office.

Official Score*
Freesedogg — 1; The Rest of the World — 0
Yes, hindsight is f-ing perfect, but let's hope Ruben's failed attempt at gauging the market is not a mistake he'll repeat in the future. I was hoping maybe we were just being negative Philadelpia fans for hating on the deal, but with more outside perspective agreeing with us, I'm afraid the conclusion is much worse—we're all just knowledgeable sports fans. Hate to say I told you so...

*unofficial score